Projections of future climate change

Multivariate Spatial Analysis of Climate Change Projections

The goal of this work is to characterize the annual temperature for regional climate models. Of interest for impacts studies, these profiles and the potential change in these profiles are a new way to describe climate change and the inherent uncertainty. To that end, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to simultaneously model the temperature profile for the four seasons of the year...

Conservation Planning with Uncertain Climate Change Projections

Climate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide, but conservation responses are constrained by considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and ecological consequences of expected climate change. Here we propose a framework to account for several sources of uncertainty in conservation prioritization. Within this framework we account for uncertainties arising from (i) species distri...

Climate Change Projections and Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction

Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it’s important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of tempera...

Water Resources of the Black Sea Catchment under Future Climate and Landuse Change Projections

As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate and landuse change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance. In this study we used a previously developed hydrologic model of the Black Sea Catchment (BSC) to assess the impact of potential climate and landuse changes on the fresh water availabil...